A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
